Whither air cargo rates – which way are they set to go? Are they set to rise as we reach the traditional peak season? Or are they set to crumble and fall – as rising fears about inflation and recession hit global trade?

The global economy seems to be grinding on remorselessly towards a new era of stagflation – with prices rising but growth stalling. Towards conditions not witnessed last since the troubled era of the 1970s. There are of course various reasons underlying this trend, including the Covid pandemic – and the huge fiscal and monetary response around the world; ensuing higher demand and tighter labour markets; and Russia invading Ukraine, adding a further shock to key commodity markets like oil and gas, agriculture and food. But how is all this playing out in terms of global trade – and the not insignificant role of the air freight sector in facilitating it? Well, many economists think Europe may already be in recession – with the added risk that Russia could simply pull the plug on the supply of gas to Germany hanging like a sword of Damocles over prospects for the whole region. Recent surveys in the US, such as the widely followed Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast, are pointing towards a sharp slowdown there too. Meanwhile, growth in China – in recent years the main engine room of global growth – was squeezed down to only +0.4% in Q2 following severe local lockdowns in key economic centres like Shanghai. Although global growth is clearly weak and falling, which may normally ease inflationary pressures, economists worry that this time inflation may be more sticky – given not least tighter labour markets in the developed world post-Covid. That gives workers more leverage to press for higher wages – which then threatens a wage-price spiral. There are other reasons too, such as the trend away from ‘just in time’ towards ‘just in case’ supply systems – after the shock of the pandemic, and subsequent scramble for PPE and vaccines, demonstrated how important it is for countries to secure supplies of ‘strategic’ goods. ‘Just in case’ may be a safer approach to maintaining supplies, but it is usually more expensive too. Arguably, the biggest factor in the growth of free trade and low inflation in the last 40 years was the opening up of China to the West. But the expansion of global trade that sparked off began to run out of steam and go into reverse after the global financial crisis of 2008 – a new trend that has accelerated since Covid and the war in Ukraine. Some are already calling this a new era of ‘deglobalisation’. There are also medium to longer term demographic trends in China that point towards a slowdown there anyway from the high growth rates of recent decades. Instead of exporting deflationary pressure, as before, some expect China could soon be exporting inflationary pressure. Hence the troubling outlook for stagflation. Economists and money managers don’t all agree about whether it will lead to a big recession – with some arguing that it may be just a shallow or ‘technical recession’ given the high levels of savings built up during the pandemic. But the outlook does not look great. Arguably, all these big geopolitical and macroeconomic trends are already reflected in the weekly data on air freight prices published by TAC Index. After rising sharply during 2020 and 2021, air freight prices globally have eased off this year, according to the TAC data – with the overall Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) up only +15.6% year-on-year through 01 August. And that was against the backdrop of much higher jet fuel prices, up more than +85% YoY according to Platt’s data. The TAC data for routes between specific locations and regions look even more interesting. For instance, the index number for China to US overall was up only +1.6% YoY – while US to China was up a huge +69.0% over the same period. Does that reflect a shortening of US supply chains – and movement of production for the US market away from China either into the US or to other locations? And rising demand from China for key inputs from the US? Perhaps time will tell. Looking at alternative locations to source supplies, the latest data for India to US routes had been showing a significant increase in air cargo prices at the start of the year as high as +66.5% YoY but now pricing trending downwards to – about -4.8% YoY – a significant decline. Similarly, Vietnam to US has also seen a more exaggerated downward trend with highs at the start of year touching +198.0% YoY and has now dropped to -33.6% YoY based on the latest numbers. At the same time, air freight prices between China and Europe have been rising strongly in both directions: China to Europe up +40.1% YoY, with +48%-plus increases for both Shanghai-Frankfurt and Shanghai-Amsterdam routes. And an even more eye-popping increase of +95.9% YoY in rates for Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI23) Frankfurt to China overall. Alongside the US to China numbers, perhaps the surge from Frankfurt reflects some latent growth in the Chinese economy – waiting to be unleashed after key inputs for the economy are urgently imported by air from Germany. After a ‘summer lull’, the peak season for air cargo is anticipated soon – and will be a key indicator of how much real growth in trade might offset those dark forces of stagflation. Read our freight blog for the latest insights and trends in the logistics industry.

Global supply chains are clearly in something of a tangled mess, particularly in the key area of container shipping. According to Maersk Line director Neil Ashby, speaking at the recent Multimodal 22 conference in the UK, some 10% of current container capacity is being lost right now simply due to port congestion. Indeed, according to regular data published by Oceanic Investment Management, congestion – defined as when vessels are chartered or employed but are stopped waiting to load or unload, or to cross canals and other pinch points – has increased markedly in the past 18 months, and is still higher this year than a year ago. According to Oceanic CIO Cato Brahde, one of the longest-running hedge fund investors in the shipping sector, this looks like being a problem for some time going forward. Perhaps reflecting this, there are obvious major problems in the supply chains for key sectors – such as semiconductors, which have been hitting production in big industries like car manufacturing. Julian Walker, chief commercial officer at Associated British Ports, told the Multimodal audience for instance that UK exports of cars are down about 46% from this time last year – and car imports also down some 35%. But to what extent does that offer opportunity to the air freight sector – long regarded as a relatively smaller if far from insignificant dimension (certainly by value) in the total freight market? To what extent, in short, could air freight ride to the rescue? Geopolitical developments and other major events in recent years – from Covid pandemic lockdowns to closure of the Suez Canal and war in Ukraine – have certainly heightened awareness about the capabilities and possibilities of air freight. If you need something moved urgently from A to B and other ways of moving it are not functioning normally, then sending by air is one option – if an expensive one. Obviously, air freight might not be the answer for all types of goods or commodities, such as with heavyweight materials. Certain types of goods can also be dangerous to carry, such as lithium batteries, though in most cases can probably still be handled by air through appropriate controls and safety procedures. Beyond that, there are also widely held objections to the huge carbon footprint of the airline industry – though increasing use of sustainable air fuel (SAF) will hopefully see that issue increasingly resolved over the coming years. There is also a lot of complexity to the air freight sector. The Covid pandemic, for instance, may have highlighted the attractions of air freight as an alternative. But it also came with a sharp reduction in air freight capacity – as the huge reduction in passenger plane traffic removed a lot of bellyhold capacity from the market. Some airlines responded during the pandemic by increasing their air freight capabilities, such as through conversions of passenger planes to handle freight. And over time more capacity has gradually come back on stream as passenger traffic picked up again – notwithstanding the recent spate of cancellations of scheduled flights by many airlines across the industry. According to data from IATA, the airline industry trade association, air cargo volumes rose 18.7% in 2021 – back above the pre-pandemic peak, but not quite above the biggest ever year IATA had recorded, which was back in 2010. Though then fell back again in Q1 this year as lockdowns came into effect in various parts of the world, notably in key export markets like China. Perhaps of more interest are the Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) numbers collected by TAC Index on industry pricing activity, which most recently showed a rise of 31.9% in overall air freight prices year-on-year to 20 June, 2022 – though with considerable regional variations by outbound location. Net of any fall in volume, this no doubt reflects a considerable increase in the dollar value of air freight being transported. On the other hand, the cost of jet fuel had also gone up by a whopping 120-130% over the same period, according to data from Platts – depending on which region you were looking at. So, if anything, the profit margins for air cargo carriers overall seem to have come down. At first sight, this might look surprising – if one might be expecting a rise in demand given the problems with containers and other modes of transport. On the other hand, there is no doubt plenty of complexity behind the numbers. For instance, the inability to move either components or manufactured goods by container – whether they be personal computers or mobile phones – does not necessarily mean they can be moved by air instead. Local lockdowns in key manufacturing centres such as Shanghai have hit both production and the ability to move things on the ground – whether to local ports or airports. Another theme which came up repeatedly at the Multimodal event was an ongoing move from ‘just in time’ production systems to ‘just in case’ – accelerated by fears about vulnerabilities to long and over-extended supply chains during the pandemic. While most industry participants do not anticipate the world moving over entirely to a ‘just in case’ approach – with manufacturers hoarding stockpiles of inventories – there has clearly been a significant move in that direction. So there is a likelihood that inventories are now pretty high in many sectors – notably in consumer goods like textiles. At the same time, following the onset of the Ukraine war, soaring fuel prices and fast-rising inflation in a stagnant global economy, there is also an expectation that consumers are likely to become more cautious – if not be more cautious already. Against that, there is still a sense that production levels and supply will rise as the year goes on through Q3 and Q4 – notably in important manufacturing centres like China. And so – if container congestion continues to be a problem, which it looks like it will be – then air freight carriers